Yes Apple has practically avoided the most serious consequences of the pandemic of Covid-19 then from the resulting shortage of components, the Russian invasion in Ukraine could get the better of this ability to resist hazards. Indeed, if Nikkei Asia is to be believed, Apple would drastically reduce its production of iPhone SE (3), a way of anticipating a much lower than expected demand. iPhone SE orders would thus decrease by 20%, which corresponds to a volume of 2 to 3 million units.
The ongoing war has indeed generated enormous upheavals on the fuel and raw materials markets, not to mention the drop in purchasing power of the globalized middle class hit hard by galloping inflation… and the withdrawal of Apple from the Russian market (which does not weigh heavily in the accounts, however). A context that should have a negative impact on sales of the iPhone SE, yet a priori more accessible (but perhaps also precisely intended for a population much more impacted by inflation in proportion to disposable income). The Nikkei adds that Apple will not be the only manufacturer affected by this readjustment of controls.
The production of AirPods would also have fallen, a decrease in orders of around 10 million units over the year. Dark clouds are gathering.